Security and Investment Project
On November 30, 2011, The Center for Climate Strategies (CCS) launched the CCS Security and Investment Project in cooperation with the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Center for Advanced Governmental Studies/Global Security Center. Senior policy makers from state and local government attended from 20 states, as well as investors, policy experts, and members of the national security community. The focus of the on-going Project is to identify, design, assess and implement policy actions at the local, state and national levels that simultaneously achieve economic, energy, and environmental security benefits in a fair and equitable manner, and generate significant investment from private and public sources.
Details and supporting materials for the preliminary analysis of 25 subnational and national sector based measures include:
- Agenda for the November 30, 2011 workshop
- Brief summary of the approach and findings
- A presentation providing more details on the project objectives, analytical framework and approach, and findings
- Summary of investment opportunities and needs for 25 key actions
- Descriptions of the suite of 25 key actions
- CCS AEO Baseline Decomposition Analysis
- CCS Macroeconomic Screening Tool
Overall, CCS’ preliminary analysis estimates that the suite of measures could:
- Expand investment in the emerging economy $323 billion by 2020;
- Increase U.S. employment by 2.43 million net new full-time jobs by 2020;
- Grow GDP by $150 billion in 2020 and cumulatively by $753 billion between now and 2020;
- Reduce U.S. oil imports by 224 million barrels in 2020 and cumulatively by 3.9 billion barrels between now and 2030;
- Increase U.S. fuel diversity, reduce summer peak demand for electricity, generate direct societal cost savings and reduce U.S. energy intensity (energy use per unit GDP);
- Reduce GHG emissions by about 460 million metric tons in 2020 and cumulatively by about 12.5 billion metric tons between now and 2030; and
- Meet US emissions reduction goals equivalent to meeting 1990 emissions levels by 2020.
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Analysis was conducted using a suite of linked micro and macro design and assessment tools using the newly developed CCS Integrated Security Metrics (ISM) system. This system includes use of national and state based energy and emissions inventory and forecast tools using national models customized for policy relevant analysis; the CCS macroeconomic screening and design tool; micro and systems level analyses of energy and non-energy sector actions using the MARKAL model and customized cost effectiveness analyses from CCS planning processes; the REMI Insight Plus model; and additional assessments.
This project has also provided important insights on recent significant revisions to US Department of Energy Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) forecasts of energy use and emissions. Year 2020 projections from the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) of US DOE conducted between 2005 and 2011 show a 69 percent drop during that period in forecasted emissions, compared to 1990 levels (see figure below). Presently, US emissions are expected to equal 2000 levels by 2020.
CCS’ decomposition analysis of AEO emissions baseline changes shows that the recession accounts for 20-22 percent of emissions reductions, while 78-80 percent are driven by key policy and market actions. These include an array of state and federal actions that have advanced lower carbon fossil energy and renewable energy supplies, energy efficiency, transportation and land use improvements, and resource conservation measures. Details of the analysis can be found here.
On January 18, 2012 CCS President and CEO Tom Peterson and CCS economists Adam Rose and Dan Wei presented a national webinar titled “Getting Economic Growth, Energy Security and Environmental Benefits on the Same Page.” The Webinar was hosted by Regional Economic Models, Inc., (REMI) as part of their online briefing series. CCS pioneered the use of the REMI macroeconomic model for determining the employment, income, economic growth and other indirect economic effects of energy and climate policy actions. A PDF of the 40-minute presentation is available here and a link to a recording of the presentation here.