Closing the Gap Between Planning and Implementation
Posted on April 21, 2022, by Tom Peterson, Arianna Ugliano and Holly Lindquist
The recently released IPCC Mitigation report, the third and final section of its sixth assessment report (AR6), clearly indicates that “Policies implemented by the end of 2020 are projected to result in higher global GHG emissions than those implied by NDCs, indicating an implementation gap.“ Current reduction pledges under the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) will likely result in exceeding the 1.5°C “by a large margin and are near the upper end of the range of modelled pathways that likely limit warming to 2°C or below.” In addition, there is a gap between the NDC mitigation pledges and the expected outcome of existing policies, which the report refers to as “implementation gaps”.
Many governmental commitments are ”ambiguously defined, and the policies needed to achieve them are not yet in place” due to “opposition from status quo interests” and “insufficient low-carbon financial flows”. It is clear that much greater effort must be put into passing legislation to mandate specific actions (such as renewable portfolio standards), create better enabling environments, and provide greater funding.
The good news is that there are signs of progress on this front, as the report notes. More countries and jurisdictions are strengthening their commitments, including pledges to reach net zero by 2050, and backing up more of those pledges with legislation and formal mechanisms. These changes seem to happen when jurisdictions are equipped with decision-making frameworks and tools that empower them to approach decarbonization planning in an inclusive, transparent, and multi-objective way.
This is where our thought leadership, tools, templates, and technical support capacities at the Center for Climate Strategies (CCS) comes into play:
The stakeholder-driven and fact-based planning process designed and supported by CCS for Guatemala’s Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) plan, officially endorsed by the Government of Guatemala in November of 2020, led subsequently to a more robust revised NDC followed by stronger linkage between mitigation policies and targets with national priorities and plans and new monitoring, evaluation, and reporting systems.
The planning and analytical step-wise framework designed by CCS coupled with capacity building led to the development of long-term pathways for meeting decarbonization targets in 6 states in Latin America in the Under2 Coalition Climate Pathways Project. The thorough analysis conducted by CCS and it partners in defining targets, identifying priority actions and assessing their impacts enabled informed decisions by local governments and built confidence for stronger commitments. The state of Mato Grosso in Brazil, for instance, signed a decree establishing a net zero goal by 2035 and foresees 80% of emissions reduction by 2030 as a result of the work done under the project.
Simplified and transparent analytical tools built by CCS enabled governmental agencies and private sector interest groups to develop their own fact-based decarbonization scenarios. The confidence built through CCS’s facilitative and technical support under the Climate Pathways Project led the state of São Paulo in Brazil to set a credible net zero goal by 2050. The GHG Strategy Tool developed by CCS for the state enables the state to conduct its own analysis and make its own informed decisions in a fast and sound way.
The climate leadership requirements laid out by CCS in a recent report for the Abell Foundation to re-establish the State of Maryland as a US national leader on climate change provided a framework and guidance for actions , including economy-wide and sector-level emission reduction targets through 2050 for net-zero emissions. Progress was made this month when the Maryland legislature passed the Climate Solutions Now Act of 2022, which increases the states emission reduction targets to 60% below 2006 levels by 2031 and net zero by 2045. CCS is also involved in ongoing work through several organizations in Maryland to support the subsequent work needed to meet these goals.
Greater efforts are possible and need to be made for fast and transformative actions. Framework, tools and technical expertise exist to move jurisdictions in that direction and quickly close the implementation gap.
